Hurricane Forecasters Stick to "Busy" 2008 Prediction

Willie Drye
for National Geographic News

June 3, 2008

Even as the first named storm of the season is being blamed for four deaths in Belize, forecasters at Colorado State University (CSU) are sticking to their April prediction of a busy Atlantic hurricane season for 2008.

The CSU team today released an updated forecast that predicts eight hurricanes—four of them with winds exceeding 110 miles (177 kilometers) an hour—will form before the season ends November 30.

"Conditions in the tropical Atlantic look quite favorable for an active hurricane season," CSU forecaster Phil Klotzbach said in a prepared statement.

Klotzbach and CSU colleague William Gray think a total of 15 tropical storms will form in the Atlantic Basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico (see map).

Tropical Storm Arthur, the season's first, came ashore Saturday along the Mexico-Belize border.

Although the storm was weakening as it made landfall, heavy rains triggered flash floods that swept away houses and wiped out bridges, according to the Associated Press.

Arthur has since been downgraded to a tropical depression.

2008 Hurricane Season Will Be "Well Above Average"

Willie Drye
for National Geographic News

April 9, 2008

Four major hurricanes, including one with a good chance of hitting the United States, will form in the Atlantic Ocean during the upcoming hurricane season, experts said today.

Hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University (CSU) predict a "well above average" 2008 hurricane season, with 15 named tropical storms gathering between June 1 and November 30.

Long-term yearly averages are nine or ten named storms, six hurricanes, and two intense hurricanes per year.

Eight of the 2008 storms are expected to intensify into hurricanes, which are defined as having winds of at least 74 miles (119 kilometers) an hour.

East Coast Landfall

There is a 70 percent likelihood that a major hurricane will make landfall somewhere on the U.S. East Coast during the coming season, CSU forecasters William Gray and Phil Klotzbach said.

The forecasters did not speculate about where the hurricane is likely to come ashore.

Over the past hundred years, the likelihood of the East Coast being hit by a major hurricane has been about 50 percent.

Gray, who has been issuing long-range hurricane forecasts for decades, told National Geographic News that the summer of 2008 will continue a trend of above-average hurricane seasons that started in 1995.