War drums becoming deafening

By Linda S. Heard Online Journal Contributing Writer Jul 2, 2008, 00:19

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The Americans and the Israelis are acting in concert vis-à-vis Iran. The unmistakable message they are putting out loud and clear is that an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities is on the cards in the event Tehran doesn’t cave in to their demands. Are they bluffing as part of an arm-twisting strategy or are they seriously planning to transform this region into an inferno?

Pundits have been analyzing the probability of a US or Israeli attack on Iran for several years now. Some have even come up with likely dates but most of those have come and gone, eroding the analysts’ credibility and dulling fears. There’s been so much chatter on the subject that we may reach the point when a “will they or won’t they?” discussion will turn into nothing more than an academic exercise on the basis it hasn’t happened so, therefore, it probably never will. The danger is Iran and the region could easily be lured into letting down its guard. Certainly, members of the Iranian leadership have indicated they don’t take the threat very seriously even though they are planning for every contingency and threatening to set the Middle East aflame if attacked.

In recent weeks, since the Israelis launched a supposed dry run in the eastern Mediterranean using 100 fighter planes and aerial tankers, the chatter has reached a crescendo. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has vowed, “Iran will not be nuclear." Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz has termed a strike on Iran “unavoidable."

Retired Mossad chief Shabtai Shavit warned that if Israel doesn’t destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities within a year, Israel would be vulnerable to nuclear incineration. He says that even if Israel doesn’t receive a green light from the US, it should be prepared to go it alone. Shavit believes there is a window of opportunity before the upcoming US election when the deed should be done in case of a win by Barack Obama, who has advocated jaw-jaw before war-war.

Arch neoconservative and former US Ambassador to the UN John Bolton says he believes Israel is poised to strike in November once the ballot has taken place.

Knesset member and retired Maj. Gen. Dani Yotom, who isn’t known for his hawkish views, says sanctions against Iran aren’t working and so “a military operation is needed." Even the normally moderate Israeli historian Benny Morris recently said, “If the issue is whether Israel or Iran should perish, then Iran should perish."

Suspicions that an attack might be in the pipeline were heightened after leaks supposedly forced the Israeli prime minister to admit he had secretly met with Aviam Sela, a brilliant military tactician said to be the architect of Israel’s 1981 strike on Iraq’s Osirak reactor. It is believed that Sela was asked to give his opinion on the feasibility of similarly putting Iran’s nuclear facilities out of action.

There is no doubt that Israelis genuinely fear a nuclear-armed Iran, which they believe would constitute an existential threat, but why are Israelis being so upfront about their intentions when history tells us they normally strike first and answer questions later?

Given that Iran is not Iraq circa the 1980s, as far as airpower, weaponry, technology and sophisticated communications go and in light of the fact Iran’s main nuclear facilities are buried under layers of steel and concrete, as much as 100 feet underground, eradicating Tehran’s nuclear capability would be challenging for any military unless it was prepared to unleash nuclear bunker-busters. Moreover, unlike the Osirak surprise strike, an attack on Iran would trigger serious military repercussions that could involve Syria, Hezbollah and pro-Iranian Shiite Iraqi groups. Such a preemptive move would probably result in a massive loss of life on all sides and would have a devastating effect on the global economy with oil prices reaching hitherto unimaginable heights.

Further, since neither Israel nor the US are in any position to launch a ground invasion without the complicity of anti-government Iranian surrogates, strikes on Iranian nuclear plants would probably result in Tehran not only reconstructing but setting their sights on developing nuclear weapons even if they’ve no plans to do so now. It’s worth mentioning that the Osirak reactor was for peaceful purposes and it was only after it was hit that Saddam Hussein actively sought a bomb.

According to the New Yorker’s veteran investigative journalist Seymour Hersh in an article, titled “Preparing the Battlefield," President George W. Bush has sanctioned covert operations and requested $400 million designed to destabilize Iran outside the sphere of the US military. These will largely be carried out by Iranian dissidents rather than Americans in the field, he says. But, once again, Iran is not Iraq. It’s a far more cohesive country and although not all of its citizens support the government, most identify themselves as proud Iranians who harbor a historical aversion to neoimperialist plots.

There is no doubt that Israel and the US would like the Iranian government to be wiped off the face of the earth along with its nuclear ambitions but both countries are divided on what to do. So far their joint and separate belligerency isn’t working. If their bellicose words and provocative actions are, indeed, a giant bluff they are ineffective. They are simply causing the Iranian leadership to dig its heels in further and assert its right under the NPT to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes. Even if this is a coordinated bluff, it could so easily reach the point of no return when to maintain strategic credibility, the players will have to make good on their threats. Certainly, one Iranian commander Brig. Gen. Mir-Faisal Baqerzadeh is taking these to heart already. According to Press TV, he has already got his troops digging more than 320,000 graves within Iran’s bordering provinces to provide any invading force with “the respect they deserve."

Linda S. Heard is a British specialist writer on Middle East affairs. She welcomes feedback and can be contacted by email at heardonthegrapevines@yahoo.co.uk.

Iran Urges OPEC To Dump Dollar

Source: Press Tv

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Tuesday urged world oil exporting countries to find ways to switch their oil revenues from the U.S. dollar to alternative currencies, the official IRNA news agency reported.

Ahmadinejad made the remarks in his speech at the 29th Meeting of the Council of Ministers of OPEC Fund for International Development which is underway in Isfahan, central Iran.

This was one of suggestions made by the Iranian president to overcome the existing challenges facing the developing countries, IRNA reported.

"Today, the experts in international economy and the analysts of the oil market all agree that the economic crisis in the U.S. together with the fall in the value of dollar have especially affected the development of the poor and developing countries," Ahmadinejad was quoted as saying.

The Iranian president added that the current situation had adverse effect on the oil exporting countries economy.

"The lower dollar has given rise to severe fluctuations in capital markets and fueled an inordinate level of speculative activity," Ahmadinejad said. "Huge sums of money have been diverted into oil exchange resulting in a bubble in the oil market."

"Here, in addition to the poor and developing countries, economy of the oil-exporting nations has been adversely affected by these circumstances," he said.

High-ranking officials from 12 OPEC member countries were participating in the conference in Isfahan, which aimed to remove problems facing the energy sector and survey economic issues of the OPEC members.

Iran vows 'painful' response to any Israeli attack

by Staff Writers
Tehran (AFP) June 9, 2008
Iran on Monday vowed a "very painful" response to any Israeli action after a senior minister of the Jewish state warned of attacks if Tehran did not halt its atomic drive, the ISNA news agency reported.

"If anyone is to commit such a stupid act, (the) response will be very painful," Defence Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar said in reaction to attack threats by Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz.

"However, as soon as the comments are made, they deny it. It is evident that the words they fabricate stem from shortcomings in domestic issues," Najjar added.

Israeli officials on Sunday slammed Mofaz's threat to attack Iran unless it halts the controversial atomic work, accusing him of exploiting the issue for political gain.

Tehran had protested the previous day to Mofaz's remarks, in a letter to the UN Security Council and Secretary General Ban Ki-moon.

Iran does not recognise Israel and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has drawn international condemnation by repeatedly predicting the Jewish state is doomed to disappear.

Israel and its close ally the United States accuse Iran of seeking a nuclear weapon, a charge vehemently denied by Tehran which says its atomic programme is peaceful.

US leads soaring levels of military spending: report

by Staff Writers
Stockholm (AFP) June 9, 2008
World military spending grew 45 percent in the past decade, with the United States accounting for nearly half of all expenditure, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said Monday.

Military spending grew six percent last year alone, according to SIPRI's annual report.

In 2007, 1,339 billion dollars (851 billion euros) was spent on arms and other military expenditure, corresponding to 2.5 percent of global gross domestic product, or GDP -- or 202 dollars for each of the world's 6.6 billion people.

The United States spends by far the most towards military aims, dishing out 547 billion dollars last year, or 45 percent of global expenditure.

Britain, China, France and Japan, the next in line of big spenders, lag far behind, accounting for just four to five percent of world military costs each.

"The factors driving increases in world military spending include countries' foreign policy objectives, real or perceived threats, armed conflict and policies to contribute to multilateral peacekeeping operations, combined with the availability of economic resources," the SIPRI report said.

The increase is both "excessive and obscene," Jayantha Dhanapala, a SIPRI member formerly in charge of disarmament affairs at the United Nations, told reporters in Stockholm, where the annual report was presented.

Registering the greatest regional growth was Eastern Europe, which saw its military spending skyrocket 162 percent between 1998 and 2007 and 15 percent from 2006 to 2007.

Russia, whose expenditure ballooned 13 percent last year, was responsible for 86 percent of the growth in the region, according to SIPRI.

North America meanwhile saw its military spending swell 65 percent, largely pulled by the United States, which has seen its costs grow 59 percent since the September 11, 2001 attacks in New York and Washington.

"By 2007, US spending was higher than at any time since World War II," the SIPRI report said.

In the past decade, the Middle East has boosted military expenditure by 62 percent, South Asia by 57 percent and Africa and East Asia by 51 percent each.

Western Europe was the region with the least military spending growth at just six percent, followed by Central America at 14 percent.

At a national level, "China has increased its military spending threefold in real terms during the past decade," SIPRI said, adding however that "due to its rapid economic growth, the economic burden of military spending is still moderate, at 2.1 percent of GDP."

As a direct result of the increased military outlay, sales by the world's 100 leading arms producing companies (excluding in China) jumped nearly nine percent in 2006 compared to the year before to 315 billion dollars, SIPRI said.

Sixty-three of the 100 top weapons firms are based in the United States and Western Europe, accounting alone for 292.3 billion dollars in sales in 2006, the last year for which SIPRI has numbers.

In its report, the group also said 14 major armed conflicts raged around the world last year -- the same number as in 2006. In 2001, there were 20, SIPRI said.

"A new type of conflict is emerging and we are seeing a fragmentation of violence," in places such as Iraq and Sudan's Darfur province, SIPRI researcher Ekaterina Stepanova told the Stockholm press conference.

This non-state violence "may have devastating consequences for civilians. All the actors tend to be opportunistic and may change sides," she added.

On an upbeat note, SIPRI chief Bates Gill meanwhile said both candidates in this year's US presidential election could help pave the way for "the most promising opportunities to see real progress in the nuclear arms control that we have seen in the last 10 years."

US and EU 'to issue Iran warning'

US President George W Bush is to hold talks with European Union leaders later on Tuesday as they meet in Slovenia for their twice-yearly summit.

The BBC's Oana Lungescu in Ljubljana says they are expected to issue a joint warning to Tehran that more sanctions against Iran's banks are being readied.

They are pressuring Iran to abandon its nuclear programme, rejecting claims it is solely for peaceful purposes.Carrot and stick' policy

There will be a tough joint message to Tehran about further sanctions against Iranian banks linked to nuclear proliferation and terrorism, our correspondent says.

Mr Bush spoke of the work to be done in Afghanistan, ahead of his trip to Europe

Mr Bush is also expected to apply pressure on individual European businesses to take a harder line.

Barclays Bank, based in Britain, has already responded to US pressure, and ended all dealings with Iran's Saderat Bank and Bank Melli.

Syria lambasts Israel, US over nuclear claims

DAMASCUS, June 3 (AFP) Jun 03, 2008
Syria's official press lashed out at the United States and Israel on Tuesday over claims it was building a secret nuclear reactor, and said the Jewish state's own atomic facilities should be subject to international inspection.

UN nuclear watchdog chief Mohamed ElBaradei said on Monday that his inspectors would this month visit the site of the suspected reactor that was bombed by Israeli warplanes in September last year.

The site at Al-Kibar was attacked after Israeli and US intelligence concluded it was a partly constructed nuclear reactor, but the Syrians have denied the allegations.

"The American and Israeli claims are false. Instead, Israel should be called on to submit its own nuclear installations to international inspection so at least we know how many nuclear weapons it possesses," Syria's official Ath-Thawra newspaper said in an editorial.

Israel is widely believed to be the only nuclear armed power in the Middle East but has a policy of neither confirming nor denying its arsenal and is not a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

On Monday, ElBaradei criticised Israel for attacking the site before the International Atomic Energy Agency had a chance to inspect it, and the United States for waiting until April to pass on intelligence alleging that the reactor had a military purpose and was built with North Korea's help.

Khamenei rejects charges Iran seeking nuclear bomb

TEHRAN, June 3 (AFP) Jun 03, 2008
Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Tuesday vehemently rejected charges Tehran was seeking a nuclear weapon, amid mounting concern from the UN atomic agency about the Iranian atomic drive.

"The Iranian nation is not seeking a nuclear weapon," Khamenei said in a speech broadcast live on state television to mark the anniversary of the death in 1989 of revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

"We are seeking nuclear energy for peaceful purposes for daily use and we will continue this path to the envy of our enemies. We will mightily achieve this aim," he added.

Khamenei has in the past frequently stated Iran's nuclear programme is peaceful and that nuclear weapons are against Islam. But the vehemence and detailed explanation of Tuesday's speech were unusual.

His comments come a day after UN atomic watchdog chief Mohamed ElBaradei urged "full disclosure" over allegations that Tehran hid key information about weaponisation in its contested nuclear programme.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has in the past months been investigating intelligence given by Western countries that Iran has studied how to make an atomic weapon, much to Tehran's fury.

The watchdog is currently holding its summer meeting of the 35-member board of governors, and the Iranian nuclear programme is a key issue.

In its latest report, the IAEA expressed "serious concern" that Iran was hiding information about alleged studies into making nuclear warheads as well as defying UN demands to suspend uranium enrichment.

But Khamenei said: "You know the Iranian nation is in principle and on religious grounds against the nuclear weapon. Nuclear weapons only incur high costs and have no use. They do not bring power to a nation."

Khamenei also expressed concern that "terrorists" could one day gain possession of a nuclear bomb and cause havoc throughout the world.

"Sooner or later, international terrorists will get their hands on nuclear weapons and bring the security of the world arrogance (the West) and all the other nations to an end," he said.

Boeing tests airborne laser gun

RIA Novosti
Tuesday, May 20, 2008

The Boeing Company said it has fired a high-energy chemical laser aboard a C-130H aircraft in ground tests for the first time.

The successful ground tests, "a key milestone for the Advanced Tactical Laser (ATL) Advanced Concept Technology Demonstration program," took place on May 13 at Kirtland Air Force Base, N.M.

"First firing of the high-energy laser aboard the ATL aircraft shows that the program continues to make good progress toward giving the warfighter an ultra-precision engagement capability that will dramatically reduce collateral damage," said Scott Fancher, vice president and general manager of Boeing Missile Defense Systems.

After conducting a series of additional laser tests on the ground and in the air, the company said the program will "fire the chemical laser in-flight at mission-representative ground targets." The test team will fire the laser through a rotating turret that extends through the aircraft's belly.

Is Chinese Regime Preparing for Nuclear War?

Gordon Thomas
G2 Bulletin
Tuesday, May 20, 2008

LONDON—Defense analysts for the British intelligence service MI6 believe China is preparing for the "eventuality of a nuclear war." The conclusion follows evidence that Beijing has built secretly a major naval base deep inside caverns which even sophisticated satellites cannot penetrate.

In an unusual development, the analysts have provided details to the specialist defense periodical, Jane's Intelligence Review, which published satellite images of the base location which is hidden beneath millions of tons of rock on the South China Sea island of Hainan .

The MI6 analysts have confirmed the submarine base hewn out of the rock will contain up to 20 of the latest C94 Jin-Class submarines, each capable of firing anti-satellite missiles and nuclear tipped rockets.

Bolton says "Bush will bomb Iran"

Think Progress
Thursday, May 8, 2008

In a Fox News interview this afternoon, former UN Ambassador John Bolton discussed his desire to bomb camps inside Iran that are reportedly training and arming Shiite insurgents who fight in Iraq. Fox host Martha McCallum asked, “Can you imagine a scenario where President Bush would do that before the end of his term?” Bolton responded, “I think so, definitely.” He added later, “This is entirely responsible on our part.”